We recommend the latest results of research and analyzes of the Polish Valuation Institute  relating to the established trend in commercial real estate prices in the area of ​​the regional market of Silesia and the cyclical nature of the price trend, published on February 27, 2017 by the President of the Institute, Tomasz Kotrasiński .

Trend in transaction prices of commercial (non-residential) real estate in the regional area of ​​Silesia in the period from 01.2013 to 12.2016

2016 was a year of declines in commercial real estate prices in the area of ​​the regional market of Silesia. Since the previous peak recorded around February 2016 in 2016, an approx. 15% drop in prices can be noticed.

At the same time, since 2007, the commercial real estate market has overlapped: an upward trend of approx. + 2% / year and a cycle of approx. 1 and 3/4 years (= 7 quarters = 21 months).

It can be seen that the peaks of the cycle of May 2014 and February 2016 are separated by the same distance as the bottom of the cycle of January 2015 and October 2016, i.e. 1.75 years. Within the cycle, however, there is a longer phase of growth lasting about 1 year and a shorter phase of decline lasting about 3/4 of a year.

Currently, taking these cycles into account, we have emerged from the decline phase and we are moving to the growth phase, which should last until around the end of 2017.

Tomasz Kotrasiński , MPAI
Polish Valuation Institute